Tuesday, February 12, 2019

News: Rotherham records fastest growing economy in the North

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Rotherham had the fastest growing economy in the whole of the North of the UK in the third quarter of 2018, according to recent research.

Rotherham's £4.4 billion a year economy was a top performer in 2017 and into 2018, staying at the top of the UK Powerhouse rankings for GVA growth.

The UK Powerhouse study is produced by Irwin Mitchell and the Centre for Economics and Business Research (Cebr) and provides an estimate of GVA growth and job creation within 46 of the UK's largest cities at least 12 months ahead of the Government's official figures. It uses a range of more timely indicators to create a "nowcast" of GVA and employment for a range of key cities across the UK.

In the latest study, Rotherham is ranked 15th for year on year GVA growth (up from 17th in the previous quarter) - leapfrogging Manchester as the top ranked Northern economy.

GVA, or Growth Value Added, is the increase in the value of the economy due to the production of goods and services. It is widely recognised by Government and policy makers as a measure of local economies.

For Rotherham, GVA in Q3 of 2018 (October, November, December) was 1.4% up on the same quarter in the previous year. This compares to an increase of 2.2% in Q1 of 2018 and 2.3% in Q2 of 2018.

In Q3 2018, the study shows that annual growth for the UK was 1.5%, down from 2.0% in Q3 2017. This slowdown across the country is reflected in a slowing of growth across many of the Powerhouse cities. Topped by Cambridge and Reading, no economy sees growth faster than 2.3% which is well below the top growth rates observed in previous quarters.

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The study also includes estimates of employment levels with Rotherham's Q3 2018 figure at 106,000, up 1.1% on the same quarter in the previous year and ranking 23rd in the study. This is a dip from the 107,000 figure estimated in Q2 of 2018.

Looking ahead the study shows that Rotherham's economy is expected to continue to grow with a year on year growth rate of 1.5% forecast for Q3 2019. Job numbers are also predicted to continue to increase and reach 107,200 in Q3 2019.

The latest official figures, which date from 2017/18, have 99,000 jobs in the borough in comparison to 104,000 in 2016/17. Rotherham Council has set a target of the figure rising by 1,000 new jobs each year. A recent report to councillors said that the figure "contradicts all other measures of Rotherham's current economy and feedback from the Office of National Statistics (ONS) indicates that the data is misleading."

The reply from the ONS indicated that the 2016 figure was "optimistic" and likely to be due to over reporting of jobs in the health sector.

The study also looked at three Brexit scenarios. Josie Dent, economist at Cebr, said: "With uncertainty still surrounding what the deal – or indeed lack of deal – between the UK and EU will be on departure day, Cebr's economic forecasts under different scenarios highlight the impact that Brexit could have on the economy, finding that business investment is set to suffer in particular in the months following a potential no-deal Brexit.

"However, our models show that the UK labour market in a no-deal scenario is more resilient than some expect, as the changing nature of employment means firms can be more flexible and adjust without the need to fire employees."

Irwin Mitchell website
CEBR website

Images: Harworth Group

6 comments:

Graldhunter February 12, 2019 at 1:11 PM  

And the Emperor's retainers wooed him on the immaculate quality of His New Suit ... blah blah same old RMBC prestidigitation, lol

Anonymous,  February 13, 2019 at 11:14 AM  

If you can't post something positive, then don't post. Do you look forward to tomorrow?

Graldhunter February 14, 2019 at 7:41 AM  

I do. But is only RMBC propaganda permissible in your rose tinted utopian happy world?

Dan,  February 14, 2019 at 12:13 PM  

The problem we have in Rotherham is people feel the need to talk the town down at every opportunity. They get upset when anything contradicts their bleak view of the town. Probably the same lot who are Rotherham born and bred but follow Sheffield Wednesday. The same lot who, when asked where they are from, lie and say "Sheffield...". Well p!ss off and live in Sheffield then!

Anonymous,  February 14, 2019 at 12:31 PM  

Graldhunter.The figures for economic growth have little to do with RMBC,Central government(which will have little support for a Labour council like Rotherham)gives economic growth figures.Im not a fan of RMBC at all,these figures are great for Rotherham and more about private businesses than RMBC.

Graldhunter February 14, 2019 at 12:52 PM  

The problem we have in Rotherham is a blind adherence to Laybah and a refusal to criticise its crackpot pet political vanity projects, eg Dolly Parton Book Scheme, Rotherham News aka RMBC Pravda, Hellaby Supertram scheme, refusal to allow midweek free car parking, I could go on but read back issues of the Tiser who covered these issues in depth.

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